Repeat and Near Repeat Analysis

Predict high risk areas

The Calculate Prediction Zones tool can be used to identify areas of risk for future incidents based on the space and time range of influence for past incidents. These prediction zones can be calculated manually or scheduled to run automatically on a recurring basis. For more information, see Schedule the Calculate Prediction Zones tool. Optionally, the tool allows the user to update previously published prediction zones which can be shared with other law enforcement personnel.

To identify areas at risk for repeat and near repeat offenses, complete the following steps:

  1. In ArcCatalog or the Catalog window in ArcMap, browse to MapsandGeodatabase\CrimeAnalysisTools.tbx\Repeat and Near Repeat toolset and open the Calculate Prediction Zones tool.
  2. In the Input Features parameter, choose the Burglaries layer.
  3. In the Date Field parameter, choose the OFFENDATE field.
  4. Use the default value of YESTERDAY for the Initial Processing Date.
  5. Type 1500 in the Spatial Range of Influence parameter to set the size of the prediction zones.
  6. Type 572 in the Spatial Half Distance parameter to calculate the distance decay rate from each originator incident.
  7. Type 21 for the number of days in the Temporal Range of Influence parameter to search for incidents 21 days before the initial processing date.
  8. Type 6 in the Temporal Half Life parameter to calculate the time decay from each originator incident.
  9. Choose Cumulative in the Risk Calculation Method parameter to calculate the cumulative value of each overlapping cell in the prediction zone.
  10. In the Output Prediction Zones Raster Location parameter browse to the MapsandGeodatabase/Output folder, then click Add.
  11. In the Output Prediction Zones Feature Class parameter choose the Prediction Zones feature class in the Crime Analysis geodatabase, then click Add.
  12. Type 2 in the Number of Risk Ranges parameter to create a primary and secondary risk area within each prediction zone.
  13. Check the Publish Polygons check box.
  14. Click the Publishing Environment parameter drop-down and choose a publishing environment.
  15. Type your Username and Password into the parameters.
  16. In the Server URL parameter type the URL address for your hosting organization or data store where the Prediction Zones service will be published. For example: [prefix].maps.arcgis.com.
  17. In the Polygon Service URL parameter type the full pathname of the rest endpoint where the Prediction Zones layer will be updated. For example: http://services.arcgis.com/xyzrKHqgkQb393u/arcgis/rest/services/PredictionZones/FeatureServer/0.
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